Internet update

Citation

Almond, N. (2003), "Internet update", Property Management, Vol. 21 No. 5. https://doi.org/10.1108/pm.2003.11321eag.001

Internet update

For those involved in property, understanding the economy, and looking towards future prospects for growth is important. The breadth of information available on the economy is immense. In this and the next editorial I shall attempt to review two aspects.

In this review I will look at the various Web sites that provide information on the current state of the economy. The next review will take a look at the Web sites of various companies who provide (often on a subscription based service) reviews on the prospects for both the UK and global economies.

For official data on the current and historical performance of the UK economy, the National Statistics Web site provides all the latest information (see www.statistics.gov.uk). Selecting the “press release” section will provide a list of the most recent press releases which you can either download, or view online in a pdf format. Quite often the press releases will only provide data on a specific topic. Therefore to access more historical time series data you will need to download data from a separate section of the Web site. This is often easier said than done unless you know specifically what you are after and sometimes perseverance is required! Perhaps the easiest way is by using the search option, and entering a keyword, or the four character reference (if known), e.g. the retail price indices (all items) is CHAW. For a more detailed review of this Web site – see the Editorial in Vol. 20 No. 4, p. 301.

For data on the USA, you may want to try the Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov), or for Europe, the European Central Bank (www.ecb.int/), or the European Union (www.euorpa.eu.int). You may also want to try the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Web site – www.oecd.org. Here you will find details on growth rates for member countries and a quarterly economic review.

The HM Treasury (www.hm-treasury.gov.uk) also provides some useful information, including forward-looking views on the economy. By selecting “Economic data & tools”, then “Forecasts for the UK economy” you can access the HM Treasury forecasts, both for the current period and in the past. These forecasts outline the latest forecasts from over 25 leading financial institutions and various independent forecasting bodies. If you are uncertain as to how up-to-date these individual forecasts are, the date on when they are last revised is provided. For example, in the April 2003 review, there were forecasts dating back to November 2002. The forecasts cover a number of economic variables including for example GDP, unemployment, inflation and earnings for the current and subsequent year. The latest budget news and press notices are also available to view on this site and these are provided immediately on budget day – just don’t expect access to be fast on this day though!

The Bank of England (www.bankofengland.co.uk) provide a range of data on the economy, including the latest report by the Monetary Policy Committee, explaining the reasoning behind their latest interest rate decision.

Beyond official data there are a number of professional organisations that provide survey evidence on the health of individual sectors, in particular manufacturing and the service sector. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) provides a number of reports, often in conjunction with other firms – see www.cbi.org.uk. By selecting the “Press centre” and choosing “Press releases by date” you can view the latest release on the surveys produced, or comments on other related matters. Reports include the quarterly survey of smaller manufacturers; the health check on manufacturing (in conjunction with Experian Business Strategies); the distributive trades survey (outlining retail sales figures); and the survey of the financial services sector (in conjunction with PricewaterhouseCoopers).

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply (www.cips.org) produce monthly reports on the state of the manufacturing, services and construction industries in their Purchasing Managers Indices. By selecting “News & Events” then “PMI Monthly Reports” you can download each report, produced in conjunction with Reuters. For the manufacturing sector there is an overall sentiment indicator on the health of the sector, together with indicators on new orders and employment. The indicators are based on a scale with 50 being the no change mark – anything above shows a rise, and anything below contraction within the sector. Similar indicators are provided for the services sector which covers among other things business activity and new orders. For the construction sector there are measures for the housing and commercial sectors, overall activity, new orders and employment.

Beyond industry, there is the consumer, who has played an important role in keeping the economy ticking over during the past year. For the latest views on consumer sentiment check out the latest monthly GFK index of consumer confidence (www.martinhamblin-gfk.com). This survey provides an overview on consumer sentiment with regards to their personal financial situation, views on purchasing major items and savings intentions.

Of more direct interest to the property profession are the reports produced by the Policy Unit of the RICS (www.rics.org.uk). Selecting “resources” then “economic analysis” takes you to a list of choices for various reports on the UK economy, the European economy, market surveys and economic forecasts.

For the UK economy the RICS produce a “UK Economic Brief” which provides a detailed review of the latest economic trends and indicators, pulling together information gleaned from the various surveys outlined above, and from official data in the UK, but also on overseas economies. The report links this economic data with the latest property market trends published by a number of leading real estate consultants. More specific information on the property market can be gained by selecting the market reviews, and this will provide access to a number of reports on both the commercial and residential sectors. The economic forecasts link provides reports on their latest forecasts for both the commercial, residential and construction sectors. On a European level there are a number of reports for individual countries – on last inspection these included Italy, Spain, France and Germany.

AcknowledgementsThe views expressed are the author’s and not those of Jones Lang LaSalle.

Nigel AlmondSenior Researcher, Jones Lang LaSalleeNigel.Almond@eu.joneslanglasalle.com