New leader will not save Canada's Liberals from defeat

Significance

Parliament has been prorogued until March 24, giving the Liberals time to hold a leadership contest before an election can be triggered. The opposition parties currently say they will then unite to defeat the Liberal government on a confidence motion at the first opportunity and force a spring election.

Impacts

• The government could lose a confidence vote as early as March 26, triggering the general election.
• NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has pledged to vote against the government even though his party is not well prepared for an election.
• Trudeau’s move to prorogue parliament will be challenged in court as unconstitutional, although this will not affect the election.
• The Trudeau government is effectively over in a legislative and policy sense.
• Canada is on the threshold of what will likely be a decade of right-wing dominance in all spheres of governance.