Japanese politics will become less stable
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Significance
Continued public anger regarding the LDP’s slush fund scandal led to opposition party gains and caused the LDP to fall short of a majority. The LDP now faces parliamentary gridlock, with the fates of the party and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba unclear.
Impacts
- Ishiba will work hard to attract votes ahead of a special Diet session, to be convened within 30 days, to elect a prime minister formally.
- Opposition Constitutional Democratic Party leader Yoshihiko Noda will contrive to deny Ishiba the support he needs.
- The supplementary budget and a related economic package must be passed immediately and next year’s budget must be set by end-2024.
- Elections to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and the Upper House will be held in June and July 2025, respectively.
- Another Lower House election is likely within twelve months to create a stable basis for government.
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