A long war will strain Lebanon’s sectarian balance
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Significance
Mikati's statement, and calls from other politicians for Hezbollah’s disarmament, underscore the challenge to Hezbollah's hegemonic role in Lebanon as a result of the conflict with Israel, which also generates serious social tensions that could endanger civil peace.
Impacts
- Ceasefire talks in Doha will determine if the government’s support for UNSC Resolution 1701 persuades Israel to halt attacks in Lebanon.
- If a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon is agreed, Joseph Aoun could be elected president on the promise of restoring army control in the south.
- More forceful diplomacy to end wars in Gaza and Lebanon could follow the US elections on November 5.
Related articles
