Mali's junta may fail to change its war strategy

Significance

Yet the junta appears to have made little alteration to its approach to growing insecurity apart from intensifying its ongoing repression of critical voices and encouraging ethnic profiling in the capital.

Impacts

• The Malian and Russian focus on fighting northern rebels may weaken their ability to combat jihadists elsewhere in the country.
• The process of replacing the Wagner Group with the Russian defence ministry-controlled African Corps may accelerate in Mali.
• Widespread flooding and insecurity may affect food production.
• The end of the rainy season will see an uptick in jihadist attacks.