Russian resource export ban will have modest impact

Significance

Uranium, nickel and titanium -- important strategic commodities necessary for a global transition to a green economy and several high-tech industries -- will be considered first, but the list could be expanded. The introduction of export restrictions would be an attempt to restrict the supply of strategic commodities.

Impacts

• Export restrictions might provoke bouts of volatility in international commodity markets.
• Oversupply in the global nickel market will mute any impact on prices.
• The impact on Russian export volumes and tax revenues will likely be modest.
• Competition with China in commodity markets, including nickel and uranium, will intensify.