The US election will be crucial for sanctions policy

Significance

The election could prompt a shift in targeting and enforcement priorities, and coordination with allies. Combined with tariff policy, this could drive significant changes in global financial markets and geopolitics, as well as influencing long-term US financial primacy.

Impacts

• Extreme tariffs would roil markets and drive reciprocal action, snarling supply chains and likely raising prices for US firms and consumers.
• Unorthodox sanctions approaches, including unpredictable, transactional measures, could undermine the long-term efficacy of US tools.
• Trump’s unilateralism would undermine trust built during Biden’s term and potentially cause Europe to distance itself from US initiatives.
• Sectors susceptible to sanctions policy shifts include oil, where weaker enforcement on Russia could reshape global markets, and technology.