Tunisian president will expect an assured victory

Significance

Major protests took place throughout September. President Kais Saied has overseen the repression of opponents and critics, rendering it unlikely that protests will change the election's trajectory. Protesters still lack the numbers and geographic spread necessary to threaten the president. Ahead of the polls, the authorities have also arrested several members of the Islamist-leaning opposition Ennahda party.

Impacts

• The EU's reputational costs are rising, given the bloc's reliance on Saied as a key partner in controlling migration.
• Despite sporadic attacks, jihadists will retain a limited presence in Tunisia, and terrorism risks will remain low.
• Saied will seek closer ties with Algeria and regional multilateral entities to support the country economically.