Germany will maintain cautious Israel policy

Significance

German military exports to Israel have fallen considerably this year, but Berlin denies that this is linked to any shift in policy. Germany, one of Israel’s most prominent supporters, is under growing legal, political and international pressure to adopt a more critical stance on Israel.

Impacts

• As a condition for forming state-level coalitions, the far left will pressure the ruling Social Democrats to impose a weapons export ban.
• As long as German rhetorical support for Israel persists, there will be an elevated risk of terrorist attacks in the country.
• Europe will remain divided over the recognition of Palestinian statehood.