Japan-China relations will remain tense

Significance

Adding to bilateral security tensions is the recent murder of a Japanese boy in Shenzhen, which spotlighted the impact of xenophobia towards China’s Japanese community and worsened already dampened two-way business prospects.

Impacts

• Xenophobia in China will persist given Beijing’s denial of issues in patriotic education and the utility of distraction from economic woes.
• Resurfacing Chinese claims to the entirety of the Ryukyu Islands will raise concerns that Beijing may stoke a further territorial dispute.
• Tokyo will attempt to disaggregate security hazards from critical economic ties, although that will become increasingly difficult.
• Any visits by Ishiba to the Yasukuni Shrine, which commemorates war dead including war criminals, would harm ties with Beijing and Seoul.