Mozambique faces challenges beyond elections

Significance

Preparations for the polls have faced multiple difficulties and there are widespread expectations that the outcomes may be a product of manipulation, as the ruling Frelimo party’s popularity is crumbling but its desire to retain power remains firm.

Impacts

• Exxon and TotalEnergies should restart their respective gas projects after the elections.
• The economy will improve but not fast enough to compensate for population growth and rising debt repayments.
• Despite media commentaries to the contrary, Renamo may perform reasonably well in parliamentary elections.
• Insurgents in Cabo Delgado may regroup after a pre-election military offensive that prompted them to disperse fades.