Irregular migration to the EU will rise significantly

Significance

Migration pressures are increasing, with arrivals this year via the Mediterranean expected to be the highest since 2017. The EU has significantly hardened its policy towards migration by pursuing a security-based approach, but it seems to be having little impact in deterring migrants from making perilous journeys.

Impacts

• The idea of processing migrants in third countries will become increasingly attractive for EU countries.
• Some countries, such as Italy, could pursue deals akin to the United Kingdom’s agreement with Rwanda.
• Swedish support for EU migrant reforms could see the far right withdraw support for government and thus trigger early elections.