Meaningful poll win will likely elude Thai opposition

Significance

Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates include former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter Paetongtarn. Prayut Chan-o-cha, who transitioned from junta leader to civilian premier following the 2019 polls, seeks re-election, backed by the Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party.

Impacts

• A coup is unlikely in the run-up to the elections and their immediate aftermath, despite the military’s concern about the poll outlook.
• Opposition parties will keep championing populist policies in campaigning, aimed especially at the rural poor in the north and north-east.
• If Pheu Thai manages to defy the odds and form a ruling coalition, Thaksin may attempt to return to Thailand after years of self-exile.