Morocco's defence capabilities will grow

Significance

Rabat had budgeted nearly USD11.8bn for defence expenditure in 2023, a significant increase over past years. Rabat’s weapons procurement is driven by perceived threats from Algeria and a desire to consolidate control over the disputed Western Sahara territory, where it fights the Polisario Front (PF) independence movement.

Impacts

• Positive economic trends will help sustain elevated levels of military spending, even if this raises deficit and debt levels.
• The government will contain the domestic political fallout from relations with Israel.
• Algerian military expenditure, already at substantially higher levels than Morocco’s, will likely also increase.
• The United States will try to limit expansion of Chinese and Russian military ties with North African countries.