International rivalry will drive satellite internet

Significance

LEO broadband promises genuinely global broadband coverage by expanding access to remote areas where cables are too costly or impractical to install. If all LEO broadband systems under development are launched, the number of satellites in orbit could increase to 90,000, from just 2,000 before the first Starlink launch in 2019.

Impacts

• New safety features of mega-constellations, such as sensors, onboard AI systems and manoeuvrability, may have other applications.
• China's state-driven LEO broadband project could stimulate the country's private space industry, making it more competitive internationally.
• China's system will find customers in countries denied access to US systems for political reasons; many countries may opt to license both.
• Smaller systems, such as those planned by the EU and Taiwan, will improve strategic autonomy and could compete for regional customers.