Nigeria's Tinubu will struggle with fiscal challenges

Significance

These subsidies were scheduled to end in June. The Council justified the decision on the need for more preparatory work, particularly by the incoming administration of President-elect Bola Tinubu, to finalise social programmes to buffer the impact of removing the subsidy on the poorest Nigerians.

Impacts

• Tinubu may be more pro-active than President Muhammadu Buhari in soliciting private sector involvement in government economic planning.
• Modest increases in crude oil output will help sustain economic growth in the short term.
• Tinubu’s health problems may complicate his ability to govern and arbitrate disputes within the ruling party.