High-frequency unofficial data to aid US policymakers

Significance

However, interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as home improvement are suffering the largest sales declines, according to weekly credit-card spending data. Housing prices also are falling, although at a slower pace. Weekly online job postings have been flat for a year.

Impacts

• Usual job market metrics overstate hiring problems as many new hires are from outside the reported workforce and are omitted from surveys.
• High openings and hire rates are partly due to staff turnover as demand shifts across sectors and employers hike wages to attract workers.
• The tight job market will keep job poaching high as workers move from job to job, rather than favouring the pool of unemployed job seekers.