Ukraine grain imports test EU unity

Significance

Ukraine’s free access to the EU market has caused a glut of wheat, maize, sunflower and rapeseed in neighbouring countries, triggering a political backlash and demands for compensation. The EU and member-state governments have to balance between supporting Kyiv and addressing agricultural producers’ grievances.

Impacts

• Populist parties and politicians will harness farmers’ discontent to boost their support ahead of national elections.
• If farmers do not receive compensation they perceive as adequate, it may fuel an anti-EU backlash and weaken support for Ukraine.
• The European Commission will come under pressure to allocate additional funding to frontline countries, including Slovakia and Hungary.
• The EU and national authorities will take measures to re-direct Ukrainian grain to the global markets.