Baku and Tbilisi will be main threat to EU power plan

Significance

A series of Black Sea connectivity projects is a promising development for both the South Caucasus and the EU. Georgian electricity exports could play a part in reducing European dependence on Russian energy resources.

Impacts

• Bold Black Sea infrastructure plans will sustain the concept of a trans-Caspian pipeline, although Russia and Iran are firmly opposed.
• Georgia-Russia ties seem to be stabilising, which could lead to easing the visa regime and lifting the flight ban for Georgian nationals.
• Chinese scepticism about the Black Sea-South Caucasus ‘Middle Corridor’ increases the survival chances of the east-west route via Russia.
• Georgia’s highly polarised internal political situation could negatively impact Black Sea connectivity.