Turkish presidential race will be tight

Significance

Kilicdaroglu outpolls President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He could win Turkey’s top executive office, ending the governing Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) long spell in power.

Impacts

• Despite compromising on a unity candidate, NA efforts will be marred by internal squabbles.
• The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party will likely support Kilicdaroglu.
• Opposition parties may fail to gain the two-thirds legislative majority needed to restore the parliamentary form of government.
• Losing elections may put Erdogan and/or people in his close circle in legal jeopardy.