Russia has limited leverage in Chinese-US tensions

Significance

It sides with Beijing in areas that invite Western criticism, both global matters and Chinese domestic policy. It is more circumspect on China's neighbourhood ambitions, as it has other countries' interests to consider.

Impacts

• Russian-US relations may involve greater dialogue but will not improve dramatically in coming months.
• Overt Russian support for more aggressive Chinese moves against Taiwan is improbable.
• Beijing may gain greater scope for coercive activities if Russian-US tensions rise in Europe.