Better US ties are a short-term boost for Syrian Kurds

Significance

The Kurdish administration is seeking to maximise benefits from much-improved relations with US President Joe Biden, compared with his predecessor. However, economic pressures are also rising.

Impacts

• The SDF will be excluded from official Syria peace talks, but these are in any case unlikely to make progress.
• The AANES will focus on service provision as a means to placate discontented Arab tribal populations.
• Washington could step up financial assistance to help stabilise the situation in the northeast.
• Economic problems will boost emigration, to Iraqi Kurdistan or ultimately to Europe.
• Biden will try to keep the ongoing troop presence in Syria low-key in a domestic context.