Nicaragua repression will worsen as elections near

Significance

Ortega has rejected any possibility of dialogue with the opposition and avoided implementing democratising reforms. Elections scheduled for November 7 look sure to cement the government’s position, but will lack legitimacy both domestically and internationally.

Impacts

• The government will maintain total control of the election process.
• While it is widely assumed that Ortega will run, is it possible that his wife Vice-President Rosario Murillo will do so in his place.
• A cybercrime law will reduce but not remove the prospect of mass protest organisation via social media.
• Repression, combined with a slow pandemic recovery, will increase hardship for ordinary Nicaraguans, driving outward emigration.