Saudi Arabia will hold back from the Lebanese morass

Significance

Long-term patron Riyadh has become increasing impatient with Beirut in recent years, largely because of the growing dominance of Tehran-linked factions. This year, Saudi Arabia has also been angered by a sharp influx of amphetamine pills smuggled via an increasingly dysfunctional Lebanon.

Impacts

• If Hezbollah were weakened or a Saudi-Iranian-Syrian rapprochement changed the regional environment, Riyadh could return.
• A new ‘technocratic’ government promising structural changes might entice more Gulf countries to reinvest in Lebanon.
• Disillusioned with premier-designate Saad al-Hariri, Riyadh may pick a new Sunni leader to favour, perhaps Hariri's older brother Bahaa.