US shift boosts hopes of Venezuela dialogue progress

Significance

Optimism is building that there will be progress in dialogue efforts between President Nicolas Maduro's government and US-recognised ‘interim president’ Juan Guaido. The current correlation of domestic and international interests is favourable to a breakthrough, but significant obstacles and spoilers will need to be navigated.

Impacts

• Delegations from the government and opposition will maintain a schedule of international engagements linked to the dialogue process.
• Factionalism within both the ruling party and the opposition will surface over concessions made in negotiations.
• A positive outcome will require authoritative positioning by Maduro and Guaido to ensure they can carry their respective blocks with them.