Gap between France’s Macron and Le Pen is narrowing

Significance

Nevertheless, Le Pen remains the most serious threat to President Emmanuel Macron's hopes for re-election in 2022. She stands above him in some national polls, reflecting her success in broadening RN’s appeal, widespread anti-establishment sentiment and Macron’s unpopularity and mixed record on COVID-19.

Impacts

• To revive the economy, Macron will likely campaign for reform of EU fiscal rules to enable greater levels of state investment.
• Further terrorist attacks or assaults on police would increase the salience of immigration and law and order ahead of the 2022 election.
• Ahead of the election, Macron will be reluctant to show public support for the EU-China investment agreement.