Baghdad and Erbil policy moves may deter oil investors

Significance

Although some important hydrocarbons projects have seen progress, both Baghdad and Erbil have made fresh moves seen as prejudicial by oil sector investors. Uncertainty continues over the authorities’ commitment to contracts, while the Kurdistan region has yet again fallen behind on payments to oil firms.

Impacts

• Increased oil production as OPEC+ limits ease will make progress on associated gas capture and water injection more urgent.
• A dire electricity situation may pose a threat to political stability.
• Uncertainties over the upcoming elections in October and poor prospects for bureaucratic reform may further deter investment.