Polish Deal is chance to repair coalition for election

Significance

Although the Deal mostly comprises general and incoherent promises, it is the only serious plan for the near future in the public debate. This gives the ruling coalition a chance to bounce back after 2020, when its approval rating fell from 47% to 30%, and to plunge the opposition into a new crisis.

Impacts

• Junior ZP coalition partners could find themselves at a disadvantage if senior partner PiS gains popularity and has less need of them.
• Among the parliamentary opposition, KO is especially vulnerable, losing ground to the Poland 2050 party.
• Tax changes will generate a new demand stimulus, but the new programme may have a negative impact on the propensity to invest.