Al-Shabaab will entrench its gains in Somalia

Significance

Already on the rise, al-Shabaab now also benefits from rising distraction among its domestic and international opponents, which may prolong efforts to defeat it by many years.

Impacts

• Somali and allied forces may need to revise their overall counterterrorism strategy to account for contracting resources.
• Even with sustained reforms, it may take years for Somali forces to develop capacity to assume AMISOM’s security responsibilities.
• Recent splits within the security forces will set security sector reform efforts back significantly.