Falling numbers will not ease EU migration tension

Subject

EU immigration division.

Significance

Immigration to Europe has fallen substantially over the past three years, largely because of stricter rules in EU member states and enhanced cooperation with the EU's neighbours. This downward trend, however, coincides with growing tensions between member states over how to tackle immigration once migrants and refugees enter European territory.

Impacts

• Unable to agree on an effect asylum seekers reform, the EU will continue funding African countries to stop irregular migratory flows.
• Disengagement of EU search and rescue assets and more reliance on under-trained North African coast guards will make sea migration deadlier.
• Divergent views on immigration burden-sharing could worsen foreign relations between populists in Italy and those in Hungary and Poland.