US foreign policymaking will be centralised further

Significance

Although Washington could still impose tariffs in coming weeks if migration flows are not controlled to Trump’s satisfaction, his announcement closes the loop at least for now on an episode characteristic of his seeming signature impulsiveness and hard-line approach to foreign policy.

Impacts

• The president will restrain Bolton’s inclination towards military action over negotiation, especially in North Korean denuclearisation.
• Trump will also temper Bolton’s advocacy of strikes against Iran, though he supports a hard line towards Tehran.
• Bolton and Pompeo will try to curb Trump’s foreign policy swings and reversals, as Bolton did for US-Syria policy.