Ivory Coast’s military could hamper economic gains

Significance

The attacks came shortly after President Alassane Ouattara reshuffled his cabinet and overshadowed Ivory Coast's hosting of the 8th francophone games in Abidjan (July 21-30). The latest disturbances by former rebel soldiers follow several other attacks on military installations in both Abidjan and Korhogo in the north. This is despite a May pay agreement that officially ended outstanding grievances.

Impacts

• Persistent military disturbances could prompt a violent political transition in 2020.
• Political figures looking to succeed Ouattara will use security service networks to undermine their rivals.
• Media freedom could be curtailed following the introduction of a new press bill.
• Cooperation between Ghana and Ivory Coast on cocoa exporting policy could protect against future market shocks and global price slumps.
• The current unrest is unlikely to be a harbinger of a return to widespread civil conflict.