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Washington will prove a paper tiger on North Korea

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Significance

Since its first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea has made steady progress in nuclear weapons technology. The July 4 ICBM test reflects its progress on delivery systems with longer ranges and increased sophistication. Pyongyang routinely claims to possess the status as a full nuclear power with the ability to retaliate with strategic nuclear arms against a US attack.

Impacts

  • Beijing is likely to share Washington’s concerns about nuclear technology transfer by a more secure North Korean regime.
  • However, Washington is likely to position more rapid-strike conventional forces in the region, over China’s vociferous objections.
  • Once North Korea is confident in its deterrent, it may be willing to offer a cessation of testing in exchange for sanctions relief.

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