The Gambia's reform programme could prove elusive

Significance

The dismissals follow growing public criticism of the lack of urgency and policy direction of the new administration and came on the same day Barrow concluded a three-day retreat for his cabinet, as part of a broader process to develop his administration’s “development blueprint”. The retreat was held amid a lingering security threat, rising inflation (currently at almost 9%) and growing problems of power outages with electricity supply dropping from 80 megawatts to 40 megawatts.

Impacts

• The government’s economic programme is unlikely to deter large numbers of young Gambian migrants fleeing to Europe.
• A poorly managed army reform could stoke low-intensity insurgency along The Gambia’s border with southern Senegal.
• One-party domination of the executive and legislature will raise fears of potential democratic backsliding.