Regional states will influence South Sudan’s conflict

Significance

The announcement comes as security deteriorates, evidenced by the flow of refugees into Uganda, estimated at over 795,000 people. After a year of renewed fighting, South Sudan is shaping regional politics and relations.

Impacts

• A proliferation of armed groups will complicate the prospects for halting hostilities.
• The economy will fail to improve significantly amid insecurity.
• Declining US interest in the conflict opens opportunities for regional states to increase their influence.