US-Russian nuclear arms treaty may lose relevance

Subject

Prospects for renewing the New START treaty

Significance

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expires in 2021 and a five-year extension is a likely option. However, the treaty's quantitative limits on nuclear weaponry may be of diminishing importance as US and Russian technology evolves. Russia's modernised land-based missiles are coming into service 10-15 years before any US upgrade. Moscow and Washington are investing in new submarines despite fiscal constraints on both sides.

Impacts

• Russia views US missile defence deployments in Eastern Europe and South Korea as offensive and will adjust its deterrent capacity.
• US budget pressures could see the life of ICBMs extended as the Pentagon invests in submarine upgrades.
• The US military is more concerned about the escalation risks of tactical nuclear arms than the benefits of deterring conventional attack.