CIS forces will not enter Afghanistan after ISAF

Significance

With the ending of ISAF's mission, a new mission named 'Resolute Support' comes into force, with about 13,000 troops providing support and training to Afghanistan's 350,000 security personnel. However, despite this continuing support, fear continues to rise that 2015 will see a significant resurgence of extremist groups inside Afghanistan, with the prospect of a spill-over of fighting into Central Asia. Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held their largest counter-terrorism drills in August 2014, and it is likely that 2015 will see further significant SCO military drills in Central Asia.

Impacts

• Increased security clampdown in Central Asia in 2015 will come at the expense of democratic freedoms.
• Despite Chinese and Russian military capabilities, the SCO will lack the capacity to replace NATO in Afghanistan.
• Afghanistan's instability will provide an avenue for renewed limited security cooperation between Russia and the West.