Microelectronics International

ISSN: 1356-5362

Article publication date: 1 April 2002



(2002), "Editorial", Microelectronics International, Vol. 19 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/mi.2002.21819aaa.001



Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2002, MCB UP Limited


Well here we go again, the rollercoaster ride that typifies our industry has taken yet another downturn, and we are facing a recession of uncertain depth. Certainly the doom-mongers amongst us are having a field day, as the schadenfreude takes hold once more. But is it really that bad?

All the analysis tells us that there is currently less growth than previously but did people really expect the previous levels to be sustainable? Sometimes it makes one wonder if the experts that monitor and attempt to predict industry trends don't actually cause them in the first place. Basically, we all KNEW that we were heading for a down turn at some point so naturally it happened.

What we seem to be dealing with is an unstable system, there is just too much positive feedback in the industry for it ever to be stable. We constantly overshoot as companies attempt to compensate for economic climate changes only to realise it has just gone the other way. We are already beginning to hear predictions of chip shortages!

The inevitable slowdown in the telecoms sector as mobile phone sales hit a plateau seems to have set off a rather unfortunate oscillation just when the sales of Bluetooth products are about to ramp up. What this is going to do to the stability of the industry is anybody's guess – and that seems to be where the problem lies! People will guess and in guessing will influence the outcome.

So here's my prediction – unless you get out there and buy up all the components, the industry will take off big- time and you will be left standing when everyone else is making a lot of money!

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