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Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2008, Emerald Group Publishing Limited
World population projected to peak by 2070
Article Type: News From: Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, Volume 19, Issue 4
The rapid growth of population in some regions of the world, and the beginning of a decline in others – especially Eastern Europe – together with rapid ageing of the population in many regions, is the subject of a new series of graphic projections, which give a fresh insight into future global population trends. The analysis, carried out by global researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, is based on assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality and migration, but adds a wealth of recent new empirical evidence.
It concludes that, the probability that the world’s population will peak during the present century at about 9 billion has increased slightly since the last projections in 2001. The median projection shows the global population peaking at 9 billion at around 2070 and then slowly declining.
Under the new projections, shown in the graph above, global numbers in 2100 could be as high as 11.1 billion or as low as 6.2 billion. However, these extremes are highly unlikely. There is rather more than a 10 per cent chance that the end of century population will be less than today’s 6.6 billion, but only a 2 per cent chance that it might double to 13.2 billion.