Aspirations or survival: decision modeling and the effect of focus of attention in risky choice

Abstract

Purpose

This research aims to test focus of attention effects in risky choice.

Design/methodology/approach

As opposed to traditional aspiration-level theory, the shifting-focus concept introduces a second reference point, the survival point, and assumes a shifting focus of attention between the two reference points. In this conceptualization, risk-taking is a function of focus of attention on the survival reference point or the aspiration-level and resources relative to the two reference points. Four randomized controlled studies tested this concept.

Findings

Study 1 showed that with aspiration focus the probability of choosing a risky option was higher below an aspiration-level than above it. With survival focus, the effect was reversed. Study 2 found that close to the survival reference point, the probability of choosing a risky option was higher with aspiration focus relative to survival focus. Study 3 revealed that with scarce resources the risk taken was higher with aspiration focus than with survival focus, and the scarcer the resources the stronger was the effect. Study 4 demonstrated that with aspiration focus the risk taken was higher below an aspiration-level than above it. With survival focus the effect was reversed.

Originality/value

In addition to providing support for the validity of the shifting focus concept, this paper elaborates on the theoretical model by providing evidence for moderation effects. Risk-taking was affected by a focus of attention on one of two reference points, and the effect was moderated by resources relative to the two focal points. An advanced model is proposed to capture the effects of focus of attention and resources on risk-taking behavior.

Citation

Ross, G.M. (2023), "Aspirations or survival: decision modeling and the effect of focus of attention in risky choice", Journal of Modelling in Management, Vol. 18 No. 1, pp. 72-93. https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-01-2021-0006