Windows of opportunity for unrelated diversification: a patent data analysis of the field of neurotechnology

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the potential of low-income countries to mitigate technological lock-ins by exploiting windows of opportunity (WOOs). Given their inherent inclination toward path dependency, these countries often face challenges in diversifying beyond their established technological trajectories. We examine the pivotal role of adopting shorter cycle times of technologies (CTTs) in opening technological WOO, triggering unrelated diversification and accelerating technological catch-up.

Design/methodology/approach

Using fixed-effect regression models, we analyze country-level patent data within the neurotechnology domain from 1995 to 2021 – a period marked by significant technological change since 2010. Our focus lies in comparing diversification and catch-up trends between low-income and high-income countries, while evaluating the performance of CTT.

Findings

Our findings reveal that as low-income countries increase their knowledge complexity (KC), they tend to be locked into existing technological paths. To mitigate lock-in risks, they can strategically adopt technologies with shorter CTTs. These technologies act as catalysts, opening up technological WOOs and stimulating unrelated diversification. KC presents a double-edged sword in the catch-up process, but unrelated diversification can eliminate this dilemma.

Practical implications

Our study introduces the KC-CTT framework, proposing practical strategies to enhance and sustain countries’ competitive advantages.

Originality/value

Diversification and catch-up emerge from two separate bodies of literature but present a conceptual overlap. This research bridges the gap between the two literatures by investigating the impact of CTT as their predictor variable.

Citation

Khunakornbodintr, S., Lv, P. and Hain, D.S. (2024), "Windows of opportunity for unrelated diversification: a patent data analysis of the field of neurotechnology", International Journal of Emerging Markets, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-07-2023-1129