Historical geopolitical risk acts and world crude oil production: evidence from the international level
Osama D. Sweidan, PhD Sweidan is an Associate Professor of Economics in the College of Business and Economics at the United Arab Emirates University (UAEU). He is currently the Chair of the Economics and Finance Department. He served as the Assistant Dean for Research and Graduate Studies at the UAEU during the academic year (2020-2021). Sweidan earned his PhD degree in Economics from Colorado State University in 2004. He has around 20 years of experience teaching various economics courses at the graduate and undergraduate levels. Sweidan has professional and academic experience in many institutions. He taught at the Hashemite University/Jordan and the University of Sharjah/UAE during the period (2004-2012). Prior to obtaining his PhD degree, he worked as an economic researcher in the Research and Studies Department at the Central Bank of Jordan during the period (1994-2000). His research interest focuses on macroeconomic, monetary, international, environmental and energy economics. Recently, he focuses on the effects and determinants of geopolitical risk. He is working on both applied and theoretical papers. He has around 60 research papers published in International refereed journals such as Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Resources Policy, Journal of Cleaner Production, Geoforum, Economic Modelling, Social Indicators Research, International Economic Studies and Empirical Economics.
International Journal of Energy Sector Management
ISSN: 1750-6220
Article publication date: 13 January 2025
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigates the influence of geopolitical risk acts (GPR) on world crude oil production. GPRs are a proxy for waging wars and military actions, thus it is expected to have a clear impact on world crude oil production (WCOP).
Design/methodology/approach
The current study formulates a theoretical model, and its parameters are estimated using three methodologies – traditional autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, Dynamic ARDL model, and Frequency domain causality test – across the period 1973–2023 to ensure robust findings.
Findings
The results illustrate that GPRs constrain the global crude oil supply. The final impact relies on the positive interaction term between GPRs and international economic activity from one side and the negative interaction term with crude oil prices from the other. Likewise, the findings show that geopolitical threats reduce producing crude oil. Furthermore, this research deliberates on policy implications stemming from these findings.
Originality/value
Examining existing literature reveals a gap in understanding the relationship between geopolitical risk and crude oil production. Most of the studies in this research strand focus on investigating the impact on oil price volatility.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers of the International Journal of Energy Sector Management for the valuable and insightful comments. We are responsible for any remaining errors.
Funding: The author declares that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.
Conflict of interest: The author reports that there is no conflict of interest to declare.
Data availability: The data used in this research is available upon request.
Citation
Sweidan, O.D. (2025), "Historical geopolitical risk acts and world crude oil production: evidence from the international level", International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-09-2024-0024
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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