Study pinpoints high-risk factors for jobless

Citation

(2003), "Study pinpoints high-risk factors for jobless", Career Development International, Vol. 8 No. 5. https://doi.org/10.1108/cdi.2003.13708eab.002

Study pinpoints high-risk factors for jobless

Study pinpoints high-risk factors for jobless

Six key risk factors play a major part in explaining the chances that working-age adults will be without jobs and relying on social-security benefits, according to research for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

It found that only 1 in 25 without any of the risk factors had no job; but nine out of ten of those with all six disadvantages were not working.

The study, by Richard Berthoud, of the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex, investigated different influences over the likelihood that men and women aged 17 to 59 would be out of work. The six major factors that it identified, ranked in order of importance, were:

1. 1.

   living without a partner (especially lone parenthood);

2. 2.

   poor qualifications and lack of skills;

3. 3.

   disability;

4. 4.

   aged over 50;

5. 5.

   living in an area where labour demand is weak; and

6. 6.

   coming from certain minority ethnic groups (especially Bangladeshi and Pakistani, but including Caribbean, African and Indian).

Analysing data on 550,000 adults, the research found that one in six (17 per cent) were "non-employed" – defined as not having a paid job for more than 16 hours a week, not being in full-time education and not having a partner who worked either. While only 4 per cent without any of the risk factors had no job, the proportion of those with all six factors who were out of work was 91 per cent.

Looking at different combinations of factors, one in ten adults were found to have more than a 50 per cent risk of being jobless. In general, each factor consistently added to the level of risk an individual faces.

However, there were some significant exceptions, for example:

• •

  Lone parents of Caribbean or African descent were less likely to be out of work (55 per cent) than would have been predicted from their family structure and ethnic group (68 per cent).

• •

  Pakistani and Bangladeshi men and women in their 50s, with low qualifications and skills, were at even higher risk of non-employment (82 per cent) than would have been expected from simply adding up the risks associated with those three factors (71 per cent).

Richard Berthoud argues that, although there are a few combinations of factors that require special attention, the pattern of non-employment risks revealed by his analysis is less complicated than some previous studies have implied. There is no sign of an exponential effect, where the impact of three or four disadvantages was systematically more serious than the cumulative impact of each of them.

He said: "This is especially helpful to policy analysts who can be reassured that if they tackle the barriers to employment associated with one particular risk factor they can achieve positive results without having to worry too much about the links with other forms of disadvantage.

"Perhaps the most striking finding concerns the huge disparity in risks. People with very high risks of non-employment probably spend long periods without earnings, and their difficulties cry out for new initiatives. High levels of risk are sensitive to changes in the economy. That, in turn, suggests that they can be tackled and successfully reduced through policy changes."