Three scenarios of the United States’ future – 2022 to 2050

Abstract

Purpose

The author develops three U.S. scenarios to enable practitioners to gain a new mental model of the future from 2022 to 2050 by analyzing the uncertainties around major issues.

Design/methodology/approach

The process has two elements: the predictable developments and the scenarios of possible extreme outcomes of major uncertainties. Five steps to create a mental model for how the United States could evolve out to 2050 are mapped out.

Findings

“The development that defines the ‘Socially Divided’ scenario is China’s brutal nationalism and displacement of the United States as the world’s number one superpower.’ 10; 10;‘The signature event of the ?Security United’ scenario is the global depression from 2026 to 2035 brought on by China’s collapsing economy.’ 10; 10;?China and the U.S. remain neck and neck in the global competition for economic power throughout the ‘Economy Focused’ scenario.” 10

Research/Limitations/Implications

Supplementary data is included with the online version of the article.

Practical/Implications

Immersing ourselves in realistic narratives of the future helps us sidestep our inclination to go with what we’ve done in the past.

Originality/Value

A unique look at three plausible futures of the U.S. from 2022 to 2050. Every company should immerse itself in the scenarios to anticipate distinctly different future business environments. The article also serves as a learning model for scenario development.

Citation

Ralston, B. (2022), "Three scenarios of the United States’ future – 2022 to 2050", Strategy & Leadership, Vol. 50 No. 6, pp. 11-19. https://doi.org/10.1108/SL-07-2022-0077