Crash Severity Methods

Abstract

Purpose – This chapter gives an overview of methods for defining and analysing crash severity.

Methodology – Commonly used methods for defining crash severity are surveyed and reviewed. Factors commonly found to be associated with crash severity are discussed. Approaches for formulating and estimating models for predicting crash severity are presented and critiqued. Two examples of crash severity modelling exercises are presented and findings are discussed. Suggestions are offered for future research in crash severity modelling.

Findings – Crash severity is usually defined according to the outcomes for the persons involved. The definition of severity levels used by law enforcement or crash investigation professionals is less detailed and consistent than what is used by medical professionals. Defining crash severity by vehicle damage can be more consistent, as vehicle response to crash forces is more consistent than that of humans. Factors associated with crash severity fall into three categories – human, vehicle/equipment and environmental/road – and can apply before, during or after the crash event. Crash severity can be modelled using ordered, nominal or several different types of mixed models designed to overcome limitations of the ordered and nominal approaches. Two mixed modelling examples demonstrate better prediction accuracy than ordered or nominal modelling.

Research Implications – Linkage of crash, roadway and healthcare data sets could create a more accurate picture of crash severity. Emerging statistical analysis methods could address remaining limitations of the current best methods for crash severity modelling.

Practical Implications – Medical definitions of injury severity require observation by trained medical professionals and access to private medical records, limiting their use in routine crash data collection. Crash severity is more sensitive to human and vehicle factors than environmental or road factors. Unfortunately, human and vehicle factor data are generally not available for aggregate forecasting.

Citation

Ivan, J.N. and Konduri, K.C. (2018), "Crash Severity Methods", Lord, D. and Washington, S. (Ed.) Safe Mobility: Challenges, Methodology and Solutions (Transport and Sustainability, Vol. 11), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 325-350. https://doi.org/10.1108/S2044-994120180000011017