Safety Prediction with Datasets Characterised with Excess Zero Responses and Long Tails

Abstract

Purpose – This chapter provides an overview of issues related to analysing crash data characterised by excess zero responses and/or long tails and how to overcome these problems. Factors affecting excess zeros and/or long tails are discussed, as well as how they can bias the results when traditional distributions or models are used. Recently introduced multi-parameter distributions and models developed specifically for such datasets are described. The chapter is intended to guide readers on how to properly analyse crash datasets with excess zeros and long or heavy tails.

Methodology – Key references from the literature are summarised and discussed, and two examples detailing how multi-parameter distributions and models compare with the negative binomial distribution and model are presented.

Findings – In the event that the characteristics of the crash dataset cannot be changed or modified, recently introduced multi-parameter distributions and models can be used efficiently to analyse datasets characterised by excess zero responses and/or long tails. They offer a simpler way to interpret the relationship between crashes and explanatory variables, while providing better statistical performance in terms of goodness-of-fit and predictive capabilities.

Research implications – Multi-parameter models are expected to become the next series of traditional distributions and models. The research on these models is still ongoing.

Practical implications – With the advancement of computing power and Bayesian simulation methods, multi-parameter models can now be easily coded and applied to analyse crash datasets characterised by excess zero responses and/or long tails.

Citation

Lord, D. and Geedipally, S.R. (2018), "Safety Prediction with Datasets Characterised with Excess Zero Responses and Long Tails", Lord, D. and Washington, S. (Ed.) Safe Mobility: Challenges, Methodology and Solutions (Transport and Sustainability, Vol. 11), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 297-323. https://doi.org/10.1108/S2044-994120180000011016