Limits to growth in the 21st century

Abstract

Purpose

Highlights the constraints – natural, technological and political – to continued global economic growth.

Methodology/approach

Draws upon historical data from various secondary sources. Considers long-term trends.

Findings

The world economy has grown explosively over the past two centuries and has hugely increased its use of resources and associated emissions over that period. Global output could easily rise more than three-fold over the next 40 years, almost all of it in the emerging world. This will put substantial pressure on energy resources, and emissions of carbon dioxide and equivalents continue to rise. These developments are likely to generate large, unpredictable and possibly calamitous climate change.

Research implications

Disturbing – in the absence of a technological, policy and political revolution.

Practical implications

Emphasises the challenge of mitigating climate change, and highlights the twin imperatives of convincing the people of the world that it is possible to combine greater prosperity with recognition of environmental limits and of developing the political institutions that make feasible the decisions that need to be taken.

Originality/value

Offers a comprehensive assessment of the prospects for global economic growth and the increasing demand for non-renewable resources, particularly energy.

Citation

Wolf, M. (2014), "Limits to growth in the 21st century", International Business and Sustainable Development (Progress in International Business Research, Vol. 8), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 23-43. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1745-8862(2013)0000008007