TY  - CHAP
AB  - We consider whether there has been a gradual decoupling of the Australian business cycle from its trading partners in Europe and North America and a closer convergence toward its trading partners in Asia. We set up a dynamic latent factor model to estimate common dynamic components or factors for the real GDP growth rate of 19 countries. From variance decomposition over the 1991–2009 sample, we find that a global factor contributed the most in explaining Australian output growth variations, followed by a European factor, an Asian factor, and finally a North American factor. However, the correlation between Australian output growth movements and the Asian business cycle factor evolved from negative and small to positive and large after 2002. The European and North American factors were negatively correlated with Australian output growth for most of the sample period before turning positive in the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. This evidence supports the hypothesis that the Australian economy has decoupled to some extent from Europe, was not much coupled with North America except insofar as the United States drove the global factor, and has increasingly become positively coupled with Asia.
VL  - 9
SN  - 978-0-85724-745-2, 978-0-85724-746-9/1574-8715
DO  - 10.1108/S1574-8715(2011)0000009017
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1108/S1574-8715(2011)0000009017
AU  - Chen-Yu Leu Shawn
AU  - Sheen Jeffrey
ED  - Yin-Wong Cheung
ED  - Vikas Kakkar
ED  - Guonan Ma
PY  - 2011
Y1  - 2011/01/01
TI  - Chapter 12 The Australia–Asia Business Cycle Evolution
T2  - The Evolving Role of Asia in Global Finance
T3  - Frontiers of Economics and Globalization
PB  - Emerald Group Publishing Limited
SP  - 287
EP  - 309
Y2  - 2024/04/19
ER  -