Saddam Hussein’s Decision Calculus

Abstract

This chapter uses an analytic procedure to uncover how Saddam Hussein made his past decisions, and the decision rule(s) Saddam adopted in choosing his actions. In analyzing Saddam, a leader who was considered one of the most formidable enemies of the Western world, this study utilizes official recordings captured at the Iraq war, which provide a reliable source of information. This chapter adds to the literature on the use of applied decision analysis (ADA) in analyzing leaders’ decisions.

Specifically, an emphasis is placed on the importance of understanding the process that led Saddam Hussein to his key decisions, in order to create his decision profile. Decision profiles describe the decision rules and models that are used by decision-makers en route to choice and can help understand and predict decisions of world leaders. I use the ADA procedure to examine key foreign policy decisions made by Saddam Hussein. Finally, after thoroughly examining each of these decisions, I attempt to uncover what decision rule Saddam used, and elaborate on the implications and recommendations of my analysis.

Citation

Mograbi, E. (2019), "Saddam Hussein’s Decision Calculus", How Do Leaders Make Decisions? (Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, Vol. 28B), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 145-177. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1572-83232019000028B019