Rational model of conflict: War and peace in south asia

Abstract

The chapter provides a theory of war and conflict issues, and applies the theory to the arms race and the possibility of war in the South Asian subcontinent. We try to give a new perspective on an old question: wars are not rational since they destroy the contestable resource over which disputes arise; yet, states that are rational frequently undertake them rather than going for the less costly option of settlement. In the chapter, a war game is played in which two states first build armaments and then, if they cannot achieve a settlement, fight a war, the outcome of which depends on strength of armaments, where at stake is a contestable resource. The anticipated outcome determines the bargaining threat point. “Technology” is a factor in any war, and so too is the cost of building armaments. States typically differ in technology and may also miscalculate their own relative technical position and war-fighting capability. Alternative models of settlement and war are presented in which states either believe the opposing state has the same perception of technical advantage, or else know the opposing state’s differing perception. Dynamic models, which include the effects of decay in information over time and strategic concerns, are examined. Finally, the results of the models are applied to the stylized facts of India-Pakistan rivalry and conflict, paying particular attention to institutional issues. It is demonstrated that the stylized facts of the Indo-Pakistani conflict and wars fit well with the theoretical conjectures of the analytical models. External conflicts and wars in South Asia are often related to internal causes, which allow the possibility of incomplete information; the two contending states miscalculate their own power in terms of war-fighting capability, so that war occurs.

Citation

Barrett, R., Deger-Sen, S. and Sen, S. (2013), "Rational model of conflict: War and peace in south asia", Cooperation for a Peaceful and Sustainable World Part 2 (Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, Vol. 20 Part 2), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 95-115. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1572-8323(2013)00020.2010